Accurate Minimum Capital Risk Requirements: A Comparison of Several Approaches Articles uri icon

publication date

  • January 2008

start page

  • 2482

end page

  • 2492

issue

  • 11

volume

  • 32

international standard serial number (ISSN)

  • 0378-4266

electronic international standard serial number (EISSN)

  • 1872-6372

abstract

  • In this paper we estimate, for several investment horizons, minimum capital risk requirements for short and long positions, using the unconditional distribution of three daily indexes futures returns and a set of short and long memory stochastic volatility and GARCH-type models. We consider the possibility that errors follow a t-Student distribution in order to capture the kurtosis of the returns' series. The results suggest that accurate modelling of extreme observations obtained for long and short trading investment positions is possible with an autoregressive stochastic volatility model. Moreover, modelling futures returns with a long memory stochastic volatility model produces, in general, excessive volatility persistence, and consequently, leads to large minimum capital risk requirement estimates. Finally, the models' predictive ability is assessed with the help of out-of-sample conditional tests.