Cigarette taxes, smoking, and health in the long run Articles uri icon


  • Friedson, Andrew
  • Li, Moyan
  • Meckel, Katherine
  • Sacks, Daniel W.

publication date

  • June 2023


  • 222

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0047-2727

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1879-2316


  • Medical experts have argued forcefully that using cigarettes harms health, prompting the adoption of myriad anti-smoking policies. The association between smoking and mortality may, however, be influenced by unobserved factors, making it difficult to discern the underlying long-term causal relationship. In this study, we explore the effects of cigarette taxes experienced as a teenager, which are arguably exogenous, on adult smoking participation and mortality. A one-dollar increase in cigarette taxes experienced at ages 14¿ is associated with an 8 percent reduction in adult smoking participation and a 4 percent reduction in mortality. Mortality effects are most pronounced for heart disease and lung cancer.


  • cigarette taxes; mortality; smoking