Climate change and economic challenges for the Spanish society Projects uri icon

researchers

  • RUIZ ORTEGA, ESTHER   Principal Researcher  
  • PONCELA BLANCO, MARIA PILAR   Researcher  
  • VICENTE MALDONADO, JAVIER DE   Researcher  
  • RODRIGUEZ CABALLERO, CARLOS VLADIMIR   Researcher  
  • GONZALEZ RIVERA, GLORIA   Researcher  
  • DE JUAN FERNÁNDEZ, ARÁNZAZU   Researcher  
  • ALESSI, LUCIA   Researcher  
  • BELLOCCA, GIAN PIETRO ENZO   Researcher  

type

  • Private Sector Competitive Project

reference

  • SR20-00098

date/time interval

  • February 1, 2021 - January 31, 2023

abstract

  • The 2030 Climate and Energy Framework of the European Commission (EC) includes policy objectives
    for the European Union member states for the next decade, which imply that they should become
    “greener”, changing many social and economic aspects. Simultaneously, the EC has recognized the need
    of designing robust quantitative systems for monitoring and forecasting key variables related with these
    objectives. In this project, we will develop robust econometric methodologies for monitoring and
    forecasting several aspects related with climate change and greenhouse gas emissions and its
    economic and financial effects in Spain over the next ten years. First, we will forecast not only the
    evolution of averages of climate change variables but also the probability of different future extreme
    scenarios. Second, we will analyze the externalities generated by climate change and how they affect
    important economic variables as employment, income distribution and growth. We will forecast future
    paths of key macroeconomic variables by obtaining all possible outcomes together with their associated
    probabilities of occurrence. Finally, we will study the implications of climate change for sustainable
    finance. We will assess the climate risk associated with financial institutions' liabilities and develop a
    cost-benefit analysis aimed at channeling a suitable amount of funds into adaptation activities.

keywords

  • greenhouse gas emission; economic growth; sustainable finance; temperature forecasting; climate risk