Characterization and enhancement of flight planning predictability under wind uncertainty Articles uri icon

publication date

  • June 2019

start page

  • 1

end page

  • 29

issue

  • 6141452

volume

  • 2019

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 1687-5966

abstract

  • A novel study is presented aiming at characterizing and illustrating potential enhancements in flight planning predictability due to the effects of wind uncertainty. A robust optimal control methodology is employed to calculate robust flight plans. Wind uncertainty is retrieved out of Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts. Different wind approximation functions are compared, typifying errors, and illustrating its importance for accurate solving of the robust optimal control problem. A set of key performance indicators is defined for the quantification of uncertainty in terms of flight time and fuel consumption. Two different case studies are presented and discussed. The first one is based on a representative sample of the whole 2016 year for a single origin-destination and a forecast time step of 6 hours. As for the second, we select the most uncertain day together with a multiorigin-destination set of flights with forecast time steps up to 2 days.

keywords

  • approximation function; flight planning; forecast time; key performance indicators; probabilistic forecasts; representative sample; robust optimal control; wind uncertainties