The effect of valence and ideology in campaign conversion: panel evidence from three Spanish general elections Articles uri icon

publication date

  • February 2018

start page

  • 155

end page

  • 179

issue

  • 1 - 2

volume

  • 175

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0048-5829

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1573-7101

abstract

  • This paper studies changes in voting preferences over election campaigns. Building on the literature on spatial models and valence issues, we study whether (1) ideological distance to political parties, (2) assessments of party competence to handle different policy issues, and (3) voter-updated candidate evaluations are factors that explain shifts in voter choices in the weeks preceding the election. To test our hypotheses, we use data from three survey panels conducted for the 2008, 2011 and 2015 Spanish general elections. Our findings show that valence factors are more influential than ideological indifference to account for campaign conversion.

subjects

  • Politics

keywords

  • valence politics; spatial models; election campaigns; conversion effect; spain; panel analysis