Forecasting the integration of immigrants Articles uri icon

publication date

  • April 2017

start page

  • 127

end page

  • 137


  • 2

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0022-250X

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1545-5874


  • In this research, we develop and introduce a theoretical and mathematical forecasting framework of immigrant integration using immigrant density as a single driver. First, we introduce the integration concepts we aim at forecasting. Thereafter, we introduce a theoretical and mathematical model of the relationship between integration and immigrant density. Based on this model, we develop a methodological forecasting framework. We test the framework using immigrant integration data from Spain. We produce the forecasts, and conduct the proper evaluation of them. Finally, we conclude with a brief discussion of the wider implications of our results.


  • Sociology


  • forecasting; immigrant density; immigration; social and labor-market integration; statistical-mechanics; intermarriage; assimilation; population; dynamics; patterns; spain