Forecasting China's Mortality Articles uri icon

publication date

  • December 2013

start page

  • 87

end page

  • 98

issue

  • 2

volume

  • 52

international standard serial number (ISSN)

  • 0032-471X

electronic international standard serial number (EISSN)

  • 1549-0955

abstract

  • China's life expectancy at birth is in debate, and the 2010 census data may exaggerate the figure and the increase pace in it. In this paper, with an extension of Lee-Carter method for limited data, we use China's 1982, 1990 and 2000 census to forecast mortality pattern and life expectancy for 2000 to 2030 period. We find that the annual gain in life expectancy from 2000 to 2030 is 0.18 years for males, and 0.23 years for females, and the infant mortality rate will decline to 10.39‰ in 2030 for males, and to 20.32‰ for females.

keywords

  • lee-carter method; ; life expectancy at birth; ; infant mortality rate; ; forecasting