On modeling collective risk perception via opinion dynamics Articles uri icon

authors

  • Zino, Lorenzo
  • Giardini, Francesca
  • VILONE, DANIELE
  • Cao, Ming

publication date

  • November 2024

volume

  • 80

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0947-3580

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1435-5671

abstract

  • Modeling the collective response to an emergency is a problem of paramount importance in social science and risk management. Here, we leverage the social psychology literature to develop a mathematical model tailored to such a real-world problem, grounded in the opinion dynamics theory. In our model, a network of individuals revise their risk perception by processing information broadcast by the institution and shared by peers, and accounts for heterogeneity in terms of individuals' trust in institutions, peers, and in their own risk sensitivity. Through a rigorous analysis of the model, we establish that the temporal average opinions of the individuals converge to a steady state and, under some assumptions, we are able to analytically characterize such a steady state, shedding light on how the individuals' heterogeneous risk sensitivity shapes the collective response. Numerical results and simulations are provided to illustrate and corroborate our findings.

keywords

  • agents networks; opinion dynamics; social dynamics