Feasibility of contrail avoidance in a commercial flight planning system: an operational analysis Articles uri icon

publication date

  • March 2024

issue

  • 1

volume

  • 4

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 2634-4505

abstract

  • Aircraft condensation trails, also known as contrails, contribute a substantial portion of aviation"s
    overall climate footprint. Contrail impacts can be reduced through smart flight planning that
    avoids contrail-forming regions of the atmosphere. While previous studies have explored the
    operational impacts of contrail avoidance in simulated environments, this paper aims to
    characterize the feasibility and cost of contrail avoidance precisely within a commercial flight
    planning system. This study leverages the commercial Flightkeys 5D algorithm, developed by
    Flightkeys GmbH, with a prototypical contrail forecast model based on the Contrail Cirrus
    Prediction (CoCiP) model to simulate contrail avoidance on 49 411 flights during the first two
    weeks of June 2023, and 35 429 flights during the first two weeks of January 2024. The utilization of
    a commercial flight planning system enables high-accuracy estimates of additional cost and fuel
    investments by operators to achieve estimated reductions in contrail-energy forcing and overall
    flight global warming potential. The results show that navigational contrail avoidance will require
    minimal additional cost (0.08%) and fuel (0.11%) investments to achieve notable reductions in
    contrail climate forcing (−73.0%). This simulation provides evidence that contrail mitigation
    entails very low operational risks, even regarding fuel. This study aims to serve as an incentive for
    operators and air traffic controllers to initiate contrail mitigation testing as soon as possible and
    begin reducing aviation"s non-CO2 emissions.

subjects

  • Aeronautics
  • Environment

keywords

  • viation; contrails; energy forcing; gwp; air-traffic management; trajectory optimization; non-co2 emissions