Growing pains. Can family policies revert the decline of fertility in pain? Articles uri icon

publication date

  • March 2023

start page

  • 269

end page

  • 281

issue

  • 1

volume

  • 11

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 2183-2803

abstract

  • This article aims to analyze the capability of family policies to reverse the sharp decline in fertility that has been observed in
    Spain in recent decades. The analysis was carried out by applying two mathematical techniques: the genetic algorithm and
    the strategic scenarios. Firstly, a mathematical model was designed and validated adjusting the combined performance of
    fertility and family policies during the 2008¿2019 period. Subsequently, this model was applied to the future (2020¿2060)
    to extrapolate the evolution of fertility considering different models of family policies. The results demonstrate that a
    model of family policies that is coherent with other socially desirable objectives, such as gender and social equality, will be
    insufficient to reverse the current downward trend in fertility. Therefore, these outcomes point to the need to articulate
    and harmonize diverse public policies considering the principles of equality and well¿being to modify the recent decline in
    fertility. An increase in fertility must therefore be identified as a socially desirable goal and public policies must be adapted
    to this objective, in the understanding that fertility not only requires family policies but also their coherence with the
    employment and educational policies and work¿life balance mechanisms offered by public institutions.

keywords

  • family policies; fertility; genetic algorithms; spain; strategic scenarios