Assessing the impact of epidemiological changes on health care expenditures in France for 2025: A micro-simulation approach Articles uri icon

publication date

  • January 2011


  • 1


  • 29

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0294-0337


  • We propose a method for predicting the evolution of ambulatory health expenditure (i.e. non-hospital) under the effect of aging of the French population by 2025. The model includes two indicators of health status through which each agent of the database pass through microsimulation (thus creating an epidemiological dynamic at the individual level). Using an econometric model of consumption of healthcare services, we deduce the French health spending in 2025 by aggregating the representative aged population in 2025. The support chosen for the first application of the tool is the Health and Social Protection Survey (ESPS2000) of IRDES paired with the Public Insured Permanent Sample (EPAS). The topic is the impact of epidemiological changes on the amount of outpatient expenditures. These simulations were conducted for three epidemiological scenarios: a scenario of constant epidemiologic dynamic, a healthy aging scenario and a healthy aging + medical progress scenario (without taking into account the price effects).