AIDS, human capital and development Articles uri icon

publication date

  • October 2021

start page

  • 178

end page

  • 193


  • 42

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 1094-2025

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1096-6099


  • We develop a general equilibrium model to study the impact of HIV/AIDS on human capital accumulation decisions and on aggregate output. We calibrate the model targeting a sample of Sub-Saharan African countries, separately for 1995-2004 and 2010-2017. Our results show that the scale-up of ART treatments since mid-2000s, and the additional reductions in the transmission rate have had a significant impact on output. Counterfactual exercises suggest significant output gains from further increasing ART treatment and decreasing infectiousness. The output gains are substantially larger than the costs. We find that treatment and policies that reduce infection (e.g. condom use) are substitutes.


  • Economics


  • human capital; output; labor productivity; hiv/aids