Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19 Articles uri icon

authors

  • ALETA, ALBERTO
  • MARTIN CORRAL CALVO, DAVID
  • PASTORE Y PIONTTI, ANA
  • AJELLI, MARCO
  • LITVINOVA, MARIA
  • CHINAZZI, MATTEO
  • DEAN, NATALIE E.
  • HALLORAN, M. ELIZABETH
  • LONGINI JR., IRA M.
  • MERLER, STEFANO
  • PENTLAND, ALEX
  • VESPIGNANI, ALESSANDRO
  • MORO EGIDO, ESTEBAN
  • MORENO, YAMIR

publication date

  • September 2020

start page

  • 964

end page

  • 971

issue

  • 9

volume

  • 4

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 2397-3374

abstract

  • While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

subjects

  • Biology and Biomedicine
  • Mathematics
  • Sociology
  • Statistics

keywords

  • complex networks; computational science; epidemiology; health policy; infectious diseases