Bayesian inference and data cloning in the calibration of population projection matrices Articles uri icon

publication date

  • January 2017

start page

  • 1669

end page

  • 1681

issue

  • 3

volume

  • 46

international standard serial number (ISSN)

  • 0361-0918

electronic international standard serial number (EISSN)

  • 1532-4141

abstract

  • Discrete time models are used in Ecology for describing the dynamics of an age-structured population. They can be introduced from a deterministic or from a stochastic viewpoint. We analyze a stochastic model for the case in which the dynamics of the population is described by means of a projection matrix. In this statistical model, fertility rates and survival rates are unknown parameters which are estimated by using a Bayesian approach and also data cloning, which is a simulation-based method especially useful with complex hierarchical models. Both methodologies are applied to real data from the population of Steller sea lions located in the Alaska coast since 1978-2004. The estimates obtained from these methods show a good behavior when they are compared to the nonmissing actual values.

keywords

  • age-structured population; bayesian mcmc algorithm; data cloning; leslie matrix; projection matrices; models; dynamics; growth