Adapting the Number of Particles in Sequential Monte Carlo Methods Through an Online Scheme for Convergence Assessment Articles uri icon

publication date

  • April 2017

start page

  • 1781

end page

  • 1794


  • 7


  • 65

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 1053-587X

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1941-0476


  • This article complements the recent literature analysing the effects of the unconventional monetary stimuli applied after the Great Recession by proposing an intuitive and easy-to-implement method to evaluate different exit strategies towards a traditional monetary context. This approach, useful for central bankers or researchers interested in the effects of tapering, allows us to evaluate the consequences of a given monetary policy path on the future evolution of key macroeconomic indicators. The results based on this methodology provide a measurement of the differences in economic performance under contractionary and expansionary policies and support the recent success of monetary stimuli in boosting real indicators while having little effect on inflation.


  • Telecommunications


  • particle filtering; sequential monte carlo; convergence assessment; predictive distribution; convergence analysis; computational complexity; adaptive complexity