Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research Articles uri icon

authors

  • STRIJBIS, OLIVER STEFAN
  • ARNESEN, S
  • BERNHARD, L

publication date

  • December 2016

start page

  • 144

end page

  • 150

volume

  • 44

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0261-3794

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1873-6890

abstract

  • This article analyzes the effect of the expected closeness on turnout for 56 direct-democratic votes held in Switzerland between 2012 and 2015. It is the first study to measure the expected closeness by using data obtained from prediction markets. It clarifies empirically the relation between the expected closeness and the levels of turnout in direct democratic votes showing that the expected closeness of the result exerts a positive effect on participation levels. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

keywords

  • turnout; rationality; direct democracy; prediction markets; switzerland; presidential-election; voter turnout; information; forecasts; accuracy; polls