Forecasting mortality rates: Mexico 2001-2010 Articles uri icon

publication date

  • January 2015

start page

  • 22

end page

  • 38


  • 1


  • 1


  • In this article, we propose to combine the Lee-Carter model with recently proposed interpolation orgraduation procedures for obtaining predictions of Mexican mortality rates in the period 2001&-2010.Additionally, we obtain estimates of the mortality rates for the years within each decade in Mexicoduring the period from 1940 to 2000. The procedure is tested with data from five countries: Denmark,England and Wales, Portugal, Spain, and the United States of America. The application of this methodologyto these five countries indicates satisfactory performance, which is comparable with the oneobtained by models that use annual data.


  • dynamic factorial model; forecasting; graduation techniques; mortality rates