What is a good result in the first leg of a two-legged football match? Articles uri icon

authors

  • FLORES DIAZ, RAMON JESUS
  • FORREST, DAVID
  • PABLO, CESAR DE
  • TENA HORRILLO, JUAN DE DIOS

publication date

  • December 2015

start page

  • 641

end page

  • 647

issue

  • 2

volume

  • 247

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0377-2217

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1872-6860

abstract

  • The most important pan-European football tournaments include ties where two clubs play each other over two matches and the aggregate score determines which is admitted to the next stage of the competition. A number of stakeholders may be interested in assessing the chances of progression for either of the clubs once the score of the first match (leg) is known. The paper asks what would be a "good" result for a team in the first leg. Employing data from 6,975 contests, modelling reveals that what constitutes a good result has changed substantially over time. Generally, clubs which play at home in the first leg have become more likely to convert any given first-leg result to eventual success. Taking this trend into account, and controlling for team and country strength, a probit model is presented for use in generating probability estimates for which team will progress conditional on the first-leg scoreline. Illustrative results relate to ties where two average teams play each other and to ties where a relatively weak club plays home-first against a relatively strong club. Given that away goals serve as a tie-breaker should aggregate scores be equal after the two matches, the results also quantify how great the damage is when a home-first club concedes an away goal. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. and Association of European Operational Research Societies (EURO) within the International Federation of Operational Research Societies (IFORS). All rights reserved.