Is There any Common Knowledge News in the Euro/Dollar Market? Articles
- October 2009
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- This paper analyzes the effect of nine categories of news announcements on the quoting activity of individual foreign exchange (FX) dealers on the Euro/Dollar exchange rate from May to October 2001. We use the double autoregressive conditional Poisson model (DACP), which is designed for time series of count data, which can be both under- or overdispersed. We find that dealers' quoting activity reacts differently to the same announcements, some increasing their activity, whilst others decrease it in response to the same news. Based on the taxonomy of Evans [Evans, M. (2002), Fx trading and exchange rate dynamics. Journal of Finance 57(6), 2405-2447.], we classify our news categories in two groups: common knowledge (CK) and non-common knowledge (NCK) news, according to their effects on quoting activity and price changes. Finally we show that scheduled news announcements are NCK news, and there is no evidence for the existence of CK news amongst our announcements, which means that dealers hardly get a consensus in interpreting the news content.